Monitor · Credit
Credit-Stress Tracker
A Class A · sovereign free primary
Composite stress reading from free FRED series (HY/IG/CCC OAS, NFCI, STLFSI, 2s10s, VIX). Levels, trailing percentiles, and short-horizon changes — describe the market, never instruct.
Composite z-score
-0.40
Spread & stress grid
| Series | Level | As-of | 5y %ile | Z | 5d Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-Yield OAS | 2.71 | 2026-08-13 | 10.8% | -1.03 | 0.00 |
| Investment-Grade OAS | 0.79 | 2026-08-13 | 23.3% | -0.81 | 0.01 |
| CCC & Lower OAS | 10.24 | 2026-08-13 | 97.5% | 1.62 | 0.07 |
| Chicago Fed NFCI | -0.55 | 2026-08-07 | 37.6% | -0.38 | -0.03 |
| St. Louis Fed Financial Stress | -0.77 | 2026-08-07 | 12.1% | -0.72 | -0.05 |
| Yield Curve (10y-2y) | 0.51 | 2026-08-14 | 69.2% | 0.57 | 0.05 |
| VIX (equity vol) | 14.63 | 2026-08-13 | 16.9% | -0.87 | -0.52 |
How to read credit spreads
Option-adjusted spreads (OAS) measure extra yield over Treasuries that compensates for credit risk. Higher OAS / higher financial-stress indices historically co-occur with tighter financial conditions. Percentiles place today in a 5-year history; z-scores standardize across series. This page is a pattern study of public data — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any instrument.
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